Business Cycle Investing yields better returns with lower risk. Simple exercise of prudence and patience yields potentialy huge rewards for less volatility.
Tagged: yield curve
The yield curve is unbelievably important for every investor. The Yield Curve for Dummies answers all of the questions you wanted to know but were too afraid to ask.
Market Dashboard and Economic Indicators for September 2018. Breaking down where we are at in the business cycle at a glance.
The Yield Curve predicts future GDP movements quite accurately. It must be regarded as the most important single economic indicator.
The yield curve is a powerful indicator of intermediate equity performance. Why it matters and bridging the gap between short and long run market efficiency.
Current levels of the 10 year to 2 year spread of the yield curve are associated with poor 3 year equity returns when considering data from 1990-present.
In part 4 of this 4 part post, the re-entry point for equities is described based on the NBER recession announcement date.
In part 3, we look at how the value of the 10 year to 2 year spread compares with forward returns in US stocks.
In part 2, we discuss the dynamism between financial markets and why spotting a recession in real time may be a fool’s errand.
In part 1 of a 4 part series, we look at the feasibility of spotting a recession in real time from a historical context.